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4/8 The Lebanon problem is the elephant in the room. → Pakistan's PM Sharif said the ceasefire covers "Lebanon and elsewhere" → Netanyahu said it "does not include Lebanon" - and Israel proved it with massive strikes killing hundreds → Iran responded by suspending Hormuz

3/8 Iran's Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf just declared 3 clauses of the 10-point framework have been violated - before negotiations even began: Ceasefire in Lebanon violated - Israel launched its largest wave of strikes since the war began A drone entered Iranian airspace - a

2/8 The ceasefire is barely 24 hours old - and it's already under serious strain. Iran told mediators it will limit ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz to just ~12 per day and impose tolls. Before the war, 100-120 vessels transited daily.

Middle East: Will Peace Hold? Just yesterday, all markets were euphorically pricing in the end of the war, and oil was discounting the significant opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Recently, however, many signs indicate that not everything is so rosy. A short story 🧵 pic.x.com/Q9UNJ0Wg4S

NASA just dropped another pictures of the Moon. pic.x.com/KIeXiMe4rj

a boat paid crypto to cross a war zone. we live here. pic.x.com/mFjcWwUP6W

@Polymarket imagine being ship number 801 in the queue

8/8 WALL STREET ROARS BACK. NASDAQ surges over 4%, breaking decisively above the downtrend line that held since late January - now just ~5% from ATH S&P 500 jumps over 3%, sitting less than 4% from all-time highs Markets are pricing in de-escalation. But remember: this is a pic.x.com/K8uSWBX7v3

7/8 OIL IN FREEFALL. Energy markets reacted instantly to the Hormuz reopening: Brent plunges ~15% to ~$95 WTI crude crashes ~18% to around $96 A reminder - the Strait's closure triggered the largest supply disruption since the 1970s energy crisis. The prospect of ~20% of pic.x.com/LMvyEuVmN8

6/8 The most surprising element of the deal: Iran will charge transit fees on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, sharing the revenue with Oman. According to the AP, fees will vary by vessel type and cargo. Iran plans to use its share for postwar reconstruction. This is

5/8 Israel's opposition leader, Yair Lapid, tore into Netanyahu: "There has never been a political disaster like this in our entire history. Israel was not even at the table when decisions were made about the core of our national security." According to Lapid, Netanyahu "failed

4/8 Conflicting signals on the scope of the deal. Pakistan's PM Shehbaz Sharif - the key mediator - announced the ceasefire covers "Lebanon and elsewhere" and is effective immediately. Netanyahu's office directly contradicted this, stating the agreement does NOT include Lebanon.

3/8 Iranian FM Abbas Araghchi confirmed Tehran will halt military operations "if attacks against Iran are halted." Iran presented a 10-point ceasefire plan that includes lifting all sanctions and the withdrawal of US forces from the region. Trump called it "a workable basis on

US-Iran: 2-week ceasefire Just like in a Hollywood thriller, literally minutes before Trump's 8 p.m. ET deadline yesterday, the parties reached an agreement. A quick thread on the consequences of the two-week ceasefire. 🧵A thread. pic.x.com/mxBBkFSXH2

2/8 Trump declared a "total and complete victory" after striking a two-week ceasefire deal with Iran. The condition? Immediate and full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz - the strategic chokepoint carrying ~20% of global oil supply. Iran agreed to allow "safe passage" of ships,