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JUST IN: S&P500: 0.5% Shy Off ATH The S&P 500 is up over 10% in 2 weeks, now just 0.5% shy of its all-time high. Quite an impressive performance. Did any of you foresee such a market reversal when oil was reaching $120 per barrel? Well, the next round of talks is scheduled pic.x.com/f9sGYfSwWG

4 / 5 - China angle And then there's China. US intel: Beijing preparing MANPADs air defense shipments to Iran. Trump: "China's going to have big problems." Beijing: denies it - while co-authoring a 5-point peace plan with Pakistan. China helped broker the ceasefire.

5 / 5 - Markets + clock Markets aren't buying the peace story. 🛢️ Brent: ~$102 | WTI: $104 Analysts: elevated prices through end of 2026 Why: damaged infrastructure + Hormuz blockdown + naval blockade = months of supply disruption. The damage is already done. The

2 / 5 - Islamabad talks The Islamabad talks just collapsed - the highest-level US-Iran meeting since 1979. 21 hours. Vance, Witkoff & Kushner vs. Ghalibaf & Araghchi. Three agenda items. Zero agreements. Vance: "Our final and best offer." Ghalibaf: "The US failed to gain

3 / 5 - Ceasefire status Technically alive. Functionally broken. → Hormuz: ~12 ships/day (was 100–120 pre-war) → Iran charging up to $2M/vessel - crypto or yuan only → Israel striking Lebanon; Iran calls it a violation → CENTCOM: civilian transit allowed. Iran: military

Iran update: The ceasefire is cracking. 21 hours of talks. No deal. Oil at $104. China moving weapons. Here's everything that happened in the last 72 hours. 🧵 pic.x.com/WimiW3zErw

@DocumentingBTC $1. and now Iran won't open the ocean without it.

@saylordocs Bitcoin: bad for the climate, good for the tomatoes 🤓

@AshCrypto pic.x.com/FncBMKFra2

CPI (Mar): Inflation not so scary 😱 Everyone expected high inflation after the oil price rally. They got it, though, not as high as expected! CPI (MoM): 0.9% vs 1.0% exp., 0.3% prev. Core CPI (MoM): 0.2% vs 0.3% exp., 0.2% prev. CPI (YoY): 3.3% vs 3.4% exp., 2.4% prev. The x.com/SimpleFXcom/st…

Let's start with the latter. While the data will arrive with a significant delay, the final quarter of last year was already a tough one for the US. From a 4.4% increase in Q3 2025, Q4 closed with a gain of only 0.5%. What about oil prices? Brent, the North Sea variety, rose by pic.x.com/wPd2zenIxl

🇺🇸 CPI (Mar) Today Admittedly, it's not every month you see inflation forecasts like these for the US. CPI (MoM): 1.0% exp., 0.3% prev. Core CPI (MoM): 0.3% exp., 0.2% prev. CPI (YoY): 3.4% exp., 2.4% prev. The impact of the war on prices and people's lives in the US an pic.x.com/7O20HSUCxgg

8/8 What to watch now: → Islamabad talks - Friday, April 10. Vance, Witkoff & Kushner leading US delegation → Lebanon - flashpoint that could blow up the entire deal at any moment → Hormuz traffic data - the real-time verdict on whether peace is real → Brent $100 - key level.

7/8 Equities are starting to hesitate. 📉 NASDAQ red yesterday, down 1% from local highs 📊 S&P500 consolidating - unable to extend the initial ceasefire euphoria This is what a binary, headline-driven market looks like. The ceasefire popped instantaneously. The reality chec pic.x.com/OD2DMyf7D77