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2/4 The breakdown: → CPI MoM: +0.6% (in line with forecast, prev: +0.9%) → CPI YoY: 3.8% vs 3.7% expected – hotter than forecast → Core CPI MoM: +0.4% vs 0.3% expected - the real red flag Headline matched monthly expectations, but YoY came in above. The real concern is core –

3/4 Markets are not taking it well. → US indices selling off – the 7-week rally faces its first real test → Crypto dropping – $BTC pulling back → EURUSD weakening – dollar catching a bid on higher-for-longer repricing For weeks, equities shrugged off inflation fears and ran on

The CPI (Apr) Reading Inflation came in hotter than expected across the board. Markets are selling off. Details below. 🧵 pic.x.com/elkyCQ8SSK

3/4 The backdrop: → $SPX entering its 7th consecutive green weekly candle – though this one is small so far → $BTC hovering around $80K → Brent above $100 – WTI approaching $100 → Fed just held rates with an 8-4 split – the most divided vote since 1992 Equities are pic.x.com/RAPuQu0aQK

4/4 Why this CPI matters more than usual? → The Fed dropped "somewhat" from "inflation is elevated" – they're watching closely → BofA no longer expects any rate cuts in 2026 → CME FedWatch: markets pricing 0 cuts for the rest of 2026 → This is only the third month of

2/4 What's expected: → CPI MoM: +0.6% (prev: +0.9% – a deceleration) → CPI YoY: 3.7% (prev: 3.3% – acceleration) → Core CPI MoM: +0.3% (prev: +0.2%) March was brutal – gasoline alone surged 21.2%, driving headline CPI up 0.9% in a single month. April should be calmer but

CPI Tomorrow 🇺🇸 Tuesday, May 12 – 12:30 UTC. The most important inflation reading since the war began drops while markets sit near all-time highs. pic.x.com/IxTHBRYBgwgw

2/3 The breakdown: → NFP: 115K vs 65K expected: almost 2x beat! → Unemployment: 4.3% – unchanged, in line → Avg Hourly Earnings: +0.2% MoM vs 0.3% expected – wages cooling → March revised UP from 178K to 185K Strong hiring + cooling wages = the Goldilocks mix. The labor

3/3 Market reaction? Almost none. → EURUSD ticking slightly higher – dollar not catching a bid despite the beat → US indices grinding higher – as they have for 6 straight weeks. $SPX +16% since the end of March, daily RSI above 70 – overheated but unstoppable → Crypto flat –

NFP (Apr) Results 🇺🇸 The US labor market continues to surprise to the upside. Like, really! Details below. pic.x.com/IpS9oh6lLQLQ

4/4 Three scenarios for tomorrow: Strong (>120K) → possibly dollar up, stocks under pressure, "higher for longer" back Weak (<40K) → recession fears, rate-cut hopes rise Goldilocks (60-80K) → rally might continue. The Fed just held rates with the most divided vote since 1992.

3/4 The backdrop: markets couldn't care less about risk right now. → $SPX: 6th consecutive green weekly candle, +16% since end of March → $NDX: +25% in the same period – the sharpest rally since 2020 → $BTC breaks $80K for the first time since January 31 Equities are pic.x.com/7egXaPT4hM

2/4 What's expected? → NFP: 65K (prev: 178K – a massive slowdown) → Unemployment Rate: 4.3% (unchanged) → Average Hourly Earnings: +0.3% MoM (prev: +0.2%) That 65K forecast looks soft – but context matters. March's 178K was boosted by 76K healthcare jobs – largely driven by

🇺🇸 NFP Tomorrow! Tomorrow, May 8, at 12:30 PM UTC. The single most-watched economic release on the planet drops while markets are at all-time highs. Here's why it matters more than usual. pic.x.com/aYSq1DfCYcYc

BTC just $700 shy of $83 k first time since January we're so back. allegedly.