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🔴 NEWS: Ubisoft in a freefall Down 19% today. Down 32% in three days. Down 96% from its all-time high set 8 years ago. The Assassin's Creed maker is collapsing – and the numbers explain why. � pic.x.com/DHNznTJGCdd

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And it's already spilling into risk assets. $NDX closed red last week for the first time in 7 weeks, breaking the weekly winning streak. The S&P 500 dropped nearly 1.5% on the yield spike alone. Why? When the 10-year offers 4.6% risk-free, stocks need to offer a premium above

The bottom line: → Bond market is pricing in a second wave of inflation – and a Fed that's too slow to respond → Rate cuts in 2026? Markets are now pricing zero → Expectations for a rate hike before year-end are growing – and gaining momentum → The Fed is stuck – inflation

The bond market's reaction was violent. → 10-year yield spiked +12 bps to 4.60% on Friday – the biggest weekly jump since Trump's tariffs rocked markets in April 2025 → 10-year auction on Tuesday priced at 4.468% – then yields kept climbing → 30-year bond auctioned at 5.046% –

What do higher yields actually mean for the economy? → Mortgages get more expensive – the 30-year fixed rate is already at 6.36% → Corporate borrowing costs rise – companies pay more to finance growth, buybacks, and capex → Consumer credit tightens – car loans, credit cards,

US Bond Yields: Breaking Records. The bond market just sent the loudest warning signal since the 2025 tariff shock. Here's what happened – and why it matters for everything else. 🧵 pic.x.com/YcRdYwXEUK

Two back-to-back inflation reports hit the market like a freight train last week. → CPI: +3.8% YoY – the highest in three years, driven by services, gasoline, electricity, and food → PPI: +6.0% YoY vs 4.9% expected – a massive beat. Producer prices exploded as services PPI blew

8/8 The big question: puppet or independent? Warsh promised he won't be Trump's "sock puppet." But Estée Lauder was a top donor to the Trump campaign. His views align with Wall Street interests, and he supports deregulating US banks – potentially breaking international Basel

6/8 The power dynamics inside the Fed just shifted – but not as much as Trump wanted. Warsh replaces Stephen Miran's seat – not Powell's. That means Trump's appointees (Warsh, Waller, Bowman) hold 3 of 7 board seats. Not a majority. Powell staying as governor blocks Trump from

7/8 The backdrop couldn't be harder. → CPI just hit 3.8% – highest in three years → Core CPI accelerating at +0.4% MoM – energy shock spreading → Fed held rates at 3.5-3.75% with the most divided vote since 1992 → NFP: 115K in April vs 65K expected – labor market still

4/8 He's already selling. Coupang – South Korea's largest e-commerce platform, often called "the Amazon of Korea" – is where Warsh served as a board member since 2019, accumulating shares via stock awards. After Senate confirmation, he resigned from the board and filed with

5/8 What does he actually believe? During his Senate hearing, Warsh promised "fundamental reforms" at the Fed – new inflation framework, new tools, new communication. He suggested fewer FOMC meetings per year and no press conferences after each one. On independence: "I will

2/8 Powell's term as chair officially ended on May 15. Warsh hasn't been sworn in yet. So the Fed Board named Powell as "chair pro tempore" – a temporary placeholder until Warsh takes the oath. Powell stays as a voting governor until January 2028. He's not going anywhere. 🔒

3/8 So who is Kevin Warsh? → 56 years old, former Fed Governor under George W. Bush (2006-2011) → Resigned in 2011 over disagreement with QE – he's a declared opponent of central bank asset purchases → Married to Jane Lauder, granddaughter of Estée Lauder founder →