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1/8 From the start, Trump made the objectives of Operation Epic Fury unmistakably clear: • Destroy the Iranian regime’s missile arsenal • Eliminate its Navy • Ensure Iran can NEVER obtain a nuclear weapon • End the threat posed by its terrorist proxies

2/8 He added that he "did what other presidents feared", and that they are on track to complete all “military objectives very shortly.” “We are going to hit them extremely hard over the next two to three weeks. We’re going to bring them back to the Stone Ages, where they belong.”

Trump's speech: The US will send Iran back to the Stone Age Anyone expecting a "winding down" in Trump's speech yesterday was sorely disappointed. Not only did the rhetoric not soften, but the verbal escalation actually increased. A thread about words and reactions. pic.x.com/EaPG8hCBWG

8/8 What to watch now: → Can $SPX hold 6,530 as support? → Will EMA100 on H4 finally break? → Any ceasefire signals from Tehran or Washington? → Does volume confirm the next leg up - or expose this as a trap? The market is at a crossroads. The next move matters. 👀 #SP500

6/8 But here's why the war could DRAG ON: → Iran rejected the US 15-point ceasefire plan as "maximalist and unreasonable" → Trump's low credibility: he said at the beginning that the war would last 2-3 weeks, but we got to the 5th week → Iranian parliament rejected

7/8 The Strait of Hormuz remains the wildcard. Iran has effectively blocked ~20% of global oil flow through the world's most critical energy chokepoint. Even if a ceasefire drops tomorrow, supply chains don't recover overnight. Markets are pricing in hope. Reality says otherwise.

5/8 So why could the war END - and spark a real recovery? → Trump granted Iran an extension until April 6 to reopen the Strait of Hormuz - a sign Washington wants a deal → Trump says US will “leave Iran in two to three weeks” → Backchannel messages flowing through Qatar, Oman,

4/8 Zoom out to the weekly chart, and the picture gets more complex. Yes, we're reclaiming EMA50 at 6,530 - structurally important. But OBV (On Balance Volume) is NOT confirming the move. No volume behind this rally = major red flag. Without volume, breakouts fail.

2/8 First, the technical picture. After weeks of selling pressure, the S&P 500 is climbing back into the falling channel - and more importantly, reclaiming the critical support at 6,530. We're currently trading around 6,600. That's not nothing. 📊

3/8 On the H4 chart: → Price is breaking above EMA50 - bullish short-term signal → BUT EMA100 is acting as resistance - just like it has since late February when the war began The market is fighting the same ceiling it's been unable to clear for weeks. ⚠️

The S&P500: Back above key level But is this a trend reversal or just a dead-cat bounce? Let's break it down. 🧵 pic.x.com/r6Ex9lR0Xi

VIX flashing down The Volatility Index slumped 6.4% today to 27, marking a sharp retreat amid heightened anxiety. Despite the sharp decline, VIX is at its highest level in a year (a time of tariffs introduction). Trump's diplomatic comments ease market anxiety. Market drivers pic.x.com/fl0WbrX1n8

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BTC: Bearish flag again? It's truly hard to miss the patterns in this chart. Leaving aside the war in Iran, the weakness of stock indices, or the strength of the dollar, the chart looks simply perfect... for bears. For the second time, we have: - a bear flag breakout - a bear pic.x.com/J2wEsoxmGb

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