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$XAU has been swinging hard around a familiar driver: the cost of money. The US 10Y yield pushed to 5.04%, the highest since 2007, while Brent jumped to $108-109 after Saudi Arabia's Yanbu pipeline went offline. Equities slipped alongside it, S&P 500 -0.45%, Nasdaq -0.78%, and gold got pulled down to $4,261-4,283 as the combination of pricier debt and pricier oil weighed on the metal. That pressure is easing now. Saudi Arabia is rerouting cargo through Oman, US crude stocks rose by 7.1M barrels, and Brent has come back to $105-107 with WTI around $102-104. The 10Y yield followed, slipping to 4.96-4.97%. Gold has clawed back to $4,340-4,350, last trading around $4,346 on the H4. The setup ahead is a Fed decision at 20:00 CET, with markets pricing around 93% odds of a 25bp hike, the first since 2023. The dot plot and press conference will likely matter more than the rate move itself. Higher yields and a stronger dollar raise the cost of holding gold, so when both cool off before a big decision, gold tends to catch a bid. Right now that looks like a breather while the outcome is still open, rather than a shift in trend.

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